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How to create and use scenarios in the Outpatient Forecasting Tool

Use scenarios in the Outpatient Forecasting Tool › to explore how different service strategies may affect outpatient waiting list positions and long waits over time.

Scenarios allow you to model planned changes, such as increased capacity, outsourcing, or reduced activity, and compare projected outcomes against the baseline forecast.

In this article:

Before you begin

Before creating a scenario, make sure you have:

  • Access to the Outpatient Forecasting Tool in SystemView

  • Selected a District / Health region and Facility / Hospital in the filter bar

  • An understanding of the service change or assumption you want to explore

ℹ️ Note: Scenarios are only available once a district or health region and a facility have been selected.

Locate the Outpatient Forecasting Tool

The Outpatient Forecasting Tool is available in both SystemView Explore and JurisdictionView.

Access via SystemView Explore

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  1. Open Explore in SystemView.

  2. Open the Outpatients domain.

  3. Select Outpatient Forecasting Tool.

  4. Use the filter bar to select your District / Health region and Facility / Hospital.

Once selected, the forecasting charts and the Scenarios section will load.

Access via JurisdictionView

  1. Open JurisdictionView in SystemView.

  2. Open the Forecasting Tools dropdown from the side menu.

  3. Select Outpatient Forecasting Tool.

You can then apply the relevant filters to view forecasts and scenarios for your selected scope.

How to create a scenario

Step 1: Create a new scenario

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  1. In the Scenarios section, select New Scenario.

  2. Enter a scenario name that clearly describes the assumption or strategy being tested.

  3. Select a scenario end date.

    • By default, the end date is set to one year from today.

  4. Select Confirm to create the scenario.

The scenario will now appear in the Scenarios list.

Step 2: Add a strategy to the scenario

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  1. Select Add Strategy on the newly created scenario.

  2. Complete the strategy details:

    • Facility

    • Clinic Type

    • Specialty

    • Strategy type, for example:

      • Audits

      • Increased capacity

      • Outsourcing

      • Reduced capacity

      • Temporary clinics

      • Other

  3. Select the strategy duration:

    • One-off: a single, short-term impact applied once

    • Fixed-term: applied continuously between a defined start and end date

    • Ongoing: applied from the start date onward for the remainder of the forecast period

  4. Enter a short strategy description to document the assumption being applied.

  5. Confirm the strategy start and end dates.

  6. Select + Category to enter the expected average waiting list removals per week for the relevant categories.

  7. Select Confirm to save the strategy.

💡 Using multiple strategies within a scenario

A single scenario can include multiple strategies, allowing you to model a combination of service changes together.
For example, you might include different strategies for:

  • Different clinic types or specialties

  • A mix of increased and reduced capacity

  • Short-term actions alongside longer-running changes

This allows a scenario to represent a more realistic service plan, rather than a single isolated change.

Step 3: Apply the scenario to the forecast

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  1. Use the Scenario filter in the filter bar.

  2. Select the scenario you want to view.

The charts will update to show:

  • The baseline forecast, and

  • The scenario-adjusted forecast for comparison.

Review and compare scenario outcomes

Once a scenario is applied, you can use the charts and tiles to review its impact:

  • Operational Summary shows projected waiting list and long waits at the start and end of the projection period.

  • Outpatient Waiting List Trend displays baseline and scenario projections over time.

  • Additions and Removals by Week shows weekly demand and removals aligned with the selected filters.

  • Long Wait Forecast by Category highlights how long waits may change broken down by urgency category.

View scenario details in tabular form

Select Tabular View of Scenarios & Strategies above the scenarios section to open a detailed table showing all scenarios and strategies broken down by:

  • Facility

  • Specialty

  • Category

  • Strategy type and duration

  • Strategy dates

  • Expected weekly removals

This view is useful for reviewing assumptions, validating inputs, and comparing how strategies differ across scenarios.

Using scenarios effectively

Scenarios can be used to explore both:

  • Planned improvements, such as increased clinics or outsourcing, and

  • Expected pressures, such as reduced capacity, clinic closures, or increased demand.

They are intended to support planning, comparison, and discussion rather than to predict exact outcomes.

Tips for success

  • Start by reviewing the baseline forecast before applying scenarios.

  • Use clear scenario names so assumptions are easy to understand later.

  • Test more than one scenario to compare different approaches.

  • Keep assumptions realistic and transparent.

  • Revisit scenarios as service plans or demand change.

Interactive guide

Use the interactive clickthrough guide below to see how to create and apply scenarios in the Outpatient Forecasting Tool.

This walkthrough demonstrates how to:

  • Create a new scenario

  • Add one or more strategies

  • Apply the scenario to the forecast

  • Compare baseline and scenario-adjusted outcomes