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Surgery Waiting List > Risks & Projections

Track elective surgery waiting list trends to identify pressure points and plan timely interventions.

Location in SystemView: SystemView > Explore > Surgery > Waiting List > Risks & Projections

In this article:

What it is

The Surgery Risks & Projections component provides a visual breakdown of booked and unbooked patients by wait-group status — including those at risk of breaching treatment target dates, those booked beyond treatment target dates, and long wait patients.
It helps hospitals and specialties track upcoming demand, identify emerging capacity issues, and support timely surgical planning.


Why it matters

Spot future breaches before they happen.

This component turns waiting list data into early-warning insights.

  • Prevent performance issues: Identify patients close to or beyond clinically recommended timeframes.
  • Prioritise equitably: Support scheduling decisions based on urgency and risk.
  • Monitor improvement: Track whether booked breaches and risks are trending up or down.
  • Support compliance: Ensure reporting aligns with your hospitals long-wait measures.

How to use it

Filter to focus your view

Use the filter bar to refine your data:

  • Procedure Type: Surgical, Non-Surgical, Endoscopy.

    • Surgical = procedures reportable to the Department of Health.

    • Non-Surgical = procedures not reportable to the Department of Health.

    • Endoscopy = reported separately but available for monitoring.

  • Specialty / Category: Drill into specific specialties or urgency categories.

  • Doctor: View individual doctor lists (filter option appears when specialty is selected).

  • Not Ready for Surgery (NRFS): Include or exclude patients marked NRFS Use this to focus projections on patients who are bookable now.

  • Time Period: Adjusts the bottom chart to forecast patients requiring treatment over the next 12, 26, or 52 weeks, allowing you to model short-, medium-, or long-term outlooks.
  • Wait Group: Select groups in the SystemView logic such as Unbooked Risks, Booked Breaches, Booked Long Waits, etc.

💡 Tip: Filter to the specialty level to review your own service’s risks and projections.

Explore key waiting list metrics

Tile name What it shows
Elective Surgery Waiting List 12-month trend of the total number of patients on the elective surgery waiting list, showing the proportion who are considered a long wait (overdue or over target).
Elective Surgery Long Wait Patients 12-month trend by urgency category for all long wait patients — those who have already breached their recommended treatment timeframe.
Elective Surgery Patients Waiting In Time Booked to Breach Shows patients who are currently waiting within time, but have a booked surgery date beyond their recommended treatment timeframe. These are potentially patients you can reallocate and bring back in time to avoid a breach.
Waiting Without a Booking Breakdown of patients who are currently unbooked, broken down by the SystemView Unbooked Wait Groups.
Unbooked Trend by Type  12-month historical trend of patients waiting without a booking, helping track if unbooked risk volumes are increasing or improving.
Waiting With a Booking Displays all patients who currently have a booking, grouped by SystemView Booked Wait Groups. 
Booked Trend by Type 12-month trend of patients who were waiting with a booking, showing changes in booked breach and long wait volumes over time.
Patients Requiring Treatment Chart adjustable using the Time Period filter (12, 26 or 52 weeks). Displays the actual projected demand based on current waiting list data, supporting capacity planning and forward bookings. Selecting a date on this chart opens a detailed list of the patients projected to require treatment in that week — helping you prioritise scheduling and planning.

💡 Tip: If you know a particular doctor will be away, filter by their name and use the Patients Requiring Treatment chart to see who is due for surgery during that period. Click the relevant week to open the list of affected patients so you can reallocate or rebook them in advance.

Explore patient-level insights

Use the Current Waiting List Details button at the top of the component to view all patients in your current filtered selection.
This list includes procedure description, treating doctor, urgency category, and wait days, all organised by clinical priority to help identify those most at risk or requiring action.

💡 Tip: Combine this with the Patients Requiring Treatment chart to view which patients are projected to need surgery in a given week and plan your upcoming theatre sessions accordingly.

How it works

Risks & Projections calculates waiting list pressure using live booking and referral data.
Patients are grouped by their wait-group status to highlight how many are booked, unbooked, at risk, or beyond target.

Calculation logic

Wait groups in Surgery are calculated based on how close each patient is to their clinically recommended treatment date and whether they have a booking.

  • Unbooked: Patients waiting without a booking who have more than 28 days remaining until their target treatment date.
  • Unbooked Risk: Unbooked patients who are within 28 days of their target treatment date.
  • Unbooked Long Wait: Unbooked patients who have already exceeded their target treatment date.
  • Booked In Time: Patients who have a booked appointment more than 14 days before their target treatment date.
  • Booked Risk: Booked patients whose planned appointment is within 14 days of their target treatment date.
  • Booked Beyond Breach: Booked patients with a planned appointment that exceeds their target treatment date (will breach before treatment).
  • Booked Long Wait: Patients who have already breached their target treatment date but are now booked and awaiting surgery.

How it helps you

  • Identify rising risk early: Spot patients nearing breach before performance issues occur.
  • Target scheduling effort: Focus theatre planning where it will reduce long waits most.
  • Support transparency: Provide visibility to leadership on specialty performance.
  • Strengthen reporting: Accurately report booked vs unbooked risk volumes for compliance returns.
  • Guide improvement: Use trends to evaluate if demand and capacity initiatives are working.

Best practices

How often should I use it

What to do How often Who should do it Why it helps
Review current booked and unbooked risk volumes Weekly Booking Officers, Service Managers Ensures patients approaching breach are prioritised.
Monitor projections and long waits Fortnightly Theatre Coordinators, Clinical Leads Detects emerging capacity gaps and supports planning.
Extract current waiting list details As needed Booking Officers, Admin Provides patient-level context for re-booking or follow-up.

Pair with these components

  • Waiting List > Patient List: Drill into patient information for any risk group or procedures to see who is contributing to your risk totals.
  • Waiting List > Operating Times: Compare average procedure durations to help fit in risk patients when planning lists.
  • Activity Trends: Review recent surgical throughput and booking activity to understand how current performance may affect upcoming waiting list projections.
  • Elective Schedule Monitor: Use to view available booking slots and schedule high-risk patients earlier.

Tips for success

  • Hover over chart bars to see exact patient counts for each risk category.
  • Use the Current Waiting List Details button to export patient details for follow-up.
  • Filter to your specialty to avoid noise from other services.
  • Keep an eye on Booked Breaches: they may signal capacity imbalances or system delays.
  • Track Booked Long Waits: these patients still require close monitoring to prevent re-cancellation.

❓FAQs / Troubleshooting

Q. How many unbooked long waits do I have?
A. Filter to Unbooked Long Waits and hover over the red bar in Waiting Without a Booking to see the total. Use Current Waiting List Details to view the patient list.

Q. Why are long wait patients a problem?
A. Exceeding clinically recommended timeframes can lead to poorer health outcomes and reflects performance issues at the service level.

Q. Is a booked breach bad?
A. It depends — booked breaches can signal a growing capacity issue but may also occur during improvement work when risk volumes are reducing. Monitor both trends together for context.